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New Electoral Boundaries & Seat Margins

This map presents an assessment of the political impact of Victoria’s new electoral boundaries which were released by the Electoral Boundaries Commission on 17 October 2013. This assessment was produced by the ABC's Election Analyst Antony Green. The new seat margins presented as colored dots on this map can be considered approximated results for the 2010 election, had that election been held on the new boundaries.

The size of the dot shows how marginal the new seats are assessed to be on the basis of the 2010 results. The bigger the dot the more marginal the seat, and vice versa. The dot color indicates the party assessed to have held the new seat based on the redistribution of the 2010 results. Hence, with the background map color of former seats showing the party of the current sitting members, you get an idea of where a new seat (based on new boundaries) is assessed to have changed parties based on the 2010 results.

About the data

Data presented in this map is based on information from a report produced by Antony Green, 2013 Victorian Redistribution Analysis of New Electoral Boundaries.
Calculating the political impact of the new boundaries required results from the 2010 election to be reassigned and matched against the new electoral boundaries. A key assumption in making the calculations was that votes are cast for parties rather than candidates. Tables of enrolment transfers were used to match results from the 2010 election to the new boundaries. Calculations used to produce the data are based on the result of the 2010 election and do not draw on the results of the four by-elections conducted since the 2010 election. The data also does not account for the change in party status of Frankston MLA, Mr Geoff Shaw.